Odds

Several months ago, I received a wedding invitation for two old friends of mine who met at one of my running clubs. This isn't the first time I've experienced a run-through (or run-off) wedding.

I've been to lots of run clubs.  By conjecture, I should be married.  I'm not.  I believe this is horribly unfair.  I am aware I am being slightly dramatic in this sentiment.  However, my essay, my rules.   

This brings up the huge (and often frustrating) difference in gay dating versus straight dating. Straight people get lots of spaces where they can meet other straight people with similar interests. This isn't to say that all straight people magically walk into a social setting or Trader Joe's or that dive bar that serves shitty PBR down the block and emerge in holy matrimony.  Plenty of straight people have had to suffer through Plenty of Shit and OkStupid.  However, the law of numbers are social structures are greatly in favor of all y'all straights in this situation.  The possibility of meeting someone who may just be compatible is great enough to be statistically significant.

In contrast, it seems gay people go to places where the unifying factor is that everyone is gay and then they have to sift through the masses to find someone with similar interests, if they are even present.  

I blame much of this on math.  Math is stupid.  I say this as a math teacher.   

 Let's consider the odds of meeting another gay man with a niche interest.  I'll use running as an example, as it seems to be a common vector in the relationships of many of my straight peers.

Depending on the source, the gays comprise somewhere between 1% and 10% of the population.  For the purpose of demonstration, let's use the 10% figure.  (Plus the numbers are slightly less depressing.)  Half of one percent of Americans have completed a marathon according to the website "100 Day Marathon Plan," which I'm sure isn't any sort of academic authority on this, but it works for demonstration purposes.  In order to account for Colorado's higher-than-average level of fitness, I'll bump that number to 1%.  The population of Metro Denver is roughly three million.  If ten percent of those people are gay, that means we've got 300,000 homos running amok.  After we a assume a 50/50 male-female split, that means there are 150,000 gay men.  Of them, if 1% are marathoners, that leaves 1,500 gay marathoners.  After some more statistical voodoo to account for age, marital status, and taste in beer, I conclude that there are exactly 2.14 eligible marathoning men for me in Metro Denver.  Once we subtract out the one that stood me up on a date and the one who had the nerve ghost me and then several months later text me asking if I could help him get in my apartment building because his trick wasn't responding, we are left with 0.14 men.  Since we have to round down in this situation, it's a big fat zero.  Did I mention my hatred of math?

In the end, he doesn't have to be a runner.  However, it seems that the numbers shake out similarly with pretty much any other niche interests.  

In hopes of defeating the odds, I've tried the internet.  Tinder and I have a long standing relationship of nothingness.  In fact, I currently have 176 guys in the app who never messaged me back.  Le sigh.  I even tried gay speed dating.  No one struck my fancy and one guy even went and hid in the bathroom when it was his turn to talk to me.  

In all reality, the universe has sent many signals from a practical standpoint that this marriage thing just isn't going to happen, despite what the Supreme Court says.  Yet, the statistical logic hasn't fully permeated by brain.  He has a dog.  I guess I'll swipe right in hopes that in the Gay Dating Hunger Games, despite the math, the odds are ever in my favor.  

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